BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Savannah Sparrow Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGrassland birds

Savannah Sparrow in North Dakota has edged down: down 16% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-16%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Savannah Sparrow Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Savannah Sparrow in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Savannah Sparrow Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in North Dakota is projected to rise about 138% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 13–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+138%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±125.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in North Dakota is projected to rise about 138% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 13–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025251237
2026251238
2027251238
2028251338
2029261338

Savannah Sparrow Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Savannah Sparrow in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bowesmont 28820162015
Nash6520171980
Dickinson5420241968
Abercrombie4820121967
Loraine4620191982
Lakota4520091968
Bowesmont4420141968
Gorham4220181968
Horsehead Lk3220241980
Parshall2720131982
Danzig2420141982
Kempton2420171967
Denbigh2320241968
Sheyenne Lk2320241980
Sydney2219831968
Bowman2220241967
Emerado2120241973
Golva1820231986
Carpio1520231967
Powers Lake1520241980
Cooperstown1420241969
Edgeley1320241980
Buchanan1120241967
Cedar Creek1020221968
Wild Rose920241982

Savannah Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.