BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Savannah Sparrow Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGrassland birds

Savannah Sparrow in North Dakota has edged down: down 24% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-24%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Savannah Sparrow Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Savannah Sparrow in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Savannah Sparrow Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in North Dakota is projected to rise about 109% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 12–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±150.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+109%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±150.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in North Dakota is projected to rise about 109% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 12–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±150.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026241137
2027241137
2028241138
2029251238
2030251238

Savannah Sparrow Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Savannah Sparrow in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bowesmont 28820162015
Nash6520171980
Abercrombie4820121967
Loraine4620191982
Lakota4520091968
Bowesmont4420141968
Dickinson4120251968
Horsehead Lk3520251980
Sheyenne Lk3320251980
Parshall2720131982
Danzig2420141982
Kempton2420171967
Sydney2219831968
Powers Lake2120251980
Emerado2020251973
Buchanan1720251967
Bowman1720251967
Cooperstown1620251969
Carpio1520231967
Golva1520251986
Danzig 21520252019
Gorham1320251968
Wild Rose1220251982
Denbigh1120251968
Cedar Creek1020221968

Savannah Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.