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Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Savannah Sparrow Population Trend in Ohio

All statesGrassland birds

Savannah Sparrow in Ohio has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-54%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Savannah Sparrow Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Savannah Sparrow has fallen sharply in Ohio: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Savannah Sparrow Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Ohio is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Ohio is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.00.004.9
20271.90.004.8
20281.80.004.7
20291.80.004.6
20301.70.004.6

Savannah Sparrow Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Savannah Sparrow in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Maysville3120011992
Bismark2619951967
Newport2019941966
Cosmos1519991966
Garrettsvile1219911971
Tecumseh919821966
Pittsfield820241992
Napoleon720251966
Peru719781966
W Carrollton720081989
Kunkle620251992
Graytown619841966
Stonecreek620251996
No Kenton520251966
Lattasburg520251982
Vickery520251996
Valley City519991995
Botkins420191992
Kalida420191970
Lucerne420251992
Limestone420251986
Harveysburg319961972
Wilmington319961966
Kingsway220251966
N Baltimore220191966

Savannah Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.