BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Savannah Sparrow Population Trend in Ohio

All statesGrassland birds

Savannah Sparrow in Ohio has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-53%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Savannah Sparrow Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Savannah Sparrow has fallen sharply in Ohio: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Savannah Sparrow Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Ohio is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.00–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±86.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Ohio is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.00–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.10.005.0
20262.00.004.9
20272.00.004.9
20281.90.004.8
20291.80.004.7

Savannah Sparrow Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Savannah Sparrow in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Maysville3120011992
Bismark2619951967
Newport2019941966
Stonecreek1520241996
Cosmos1519991966
Garrettsvile1219911971
Tecumseh919821966
Vickery920241996
Pittsfield820241992
Hiram820211992
Peru719781966
W Carrollton720081989
Kunkle620241992
Graytown619841966
Lattasburg620241982
Valley City519991995
Botkins420191992
Kalida420191970
No Kenton420241966
Enon320231984
Harveysburg319961972
Wilmington319961966
Lockport220221967
Napoleon220211966
N Baltimore220191966

Savannah Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.