BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Savannah Sparrow Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGrassland birds

Savannah Sparrow in New Mexico has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

-66%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Savannah Sparrow Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Savannah Sparrow has fallen sharply in New Mexico: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

Savannah Sparrow Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in New Mexico is projected to fall about 74% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-74%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in New Mexico is projected to fall about 74% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.38
20260.040.000.38
20270.040.000.37
20280.030.000.36
20290.020.000.35

Savannah Sparrow Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Savannah Sparrow in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Angel Fire1620021992
Angel Fire 2420242005
Maxwell220031996
Rosebud220032001
Torreon120082008
Floyd120111991
Horse Mtn119691969
Stinking Lk.119981992
Sedan119991996
Dulce120212000

Savannah Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.