BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Savannah Sparrow Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGrassland birds

Savannah Sparrow in Kentucky has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-43%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Savannah Sparrow Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Savannah Sparrow in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Savannah Sparrow Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2022, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2022TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2022 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2022, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662022
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20180.040.000.12
20190.040.000.12
20200.040.000.12
20210.040.000.12
20220.040.000.12

Savannah Sparrow Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Savannah Sparrow in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lovelacevile419861986
Hustonville319731973
Goshen219951966
Drakesboro119781978
Shiloh119691969
Joy119901990
Pleasurevill120091981
Levee119781978
Million119731973
Hodgenville119981998
Hodgenville 2120172008
Eastview119761976

Savannah Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.