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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Henslow's Sparrow Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGrassland birds

Henslow's Sparrow in Minnesota has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

-61%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Henslow's Sparrow Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Henslow's Sparrow in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Henslow's Sparrow Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Henslow's Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±116.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±116.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Henslow's Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±116.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.08
20260.020.000.08
20270.020.000.08
20280.020.000.07
20290.020.000.07

Henslow's Sparrow Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Henslow's Sparrow in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Money Creek320031970
New London220061996
Glenwood220142013
Sherburne Nr220132013
Courtland220122006
Appleton219781978
Caledonia220072007
Chokio North120062006
Brainerd120032001
Ash Creek120112011
Ashby120132013
Chatfield 2120092007
Big Stone120122006
Caledonia 2120242022
Frontenac120192007
Edwards119971997
Tracy120232023

Henslow's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

delawareillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymarylandmichiganmissourinebraskanew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-dakotavermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.