BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Henslow's Sparrow Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGrassland birds

Henslow's Sparrow in Kansas has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

-39%Since 1989TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Henslow's Sparrow Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Henslow's Sparrow in Kansas. See the full index history below.

Henslow's Sparrow Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Henslow's Sparrow in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±168.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±168.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Henslow's Sparrow in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±168.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.080.000.20
20250.080.000.19
20260.080.000.19
20270.080.000.19
20280.080.000.19

Henslow's Sparrow Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Henslow's Sparrow in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Barclay320192019
Minneapolis320101995
Covert120051999
Thrall119701967
Dover120052005
Wreford120232005
Morehead120222022
Reece120112001
Lincolnville120022002
Kanopolis120192000
Solomon120141999
Trading Post120212004
Rock Creek120101989
Seneca120222022
Olsburg120222009

Henslow's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

delawareillinoisindianaiowakentuckymarylandmichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-dakotavermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.