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Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Henslow's Sparrow Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGrassland birds

Henslow's Sparrow in Kentucky has surged: up 141% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+141%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Henslow's Sparrow Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Henslow's Sparrow has surged in Kentucky: up 141% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Henslow's Sparrow Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Henslow's Sparrow in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.23 (95% range 0.01–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±94.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Henslow's Sparrow in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.23 (95% range 0.01–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.220.000.44
20260.220.000.44
20270.230.000.45
20280.230.010.45
20290.230.010.45

Henslow's Sparrow Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Henslow's Sparrow in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Apex820192008
Mcbrayer620242004
Riverqueen220162007
Dixon220082007
Johnsonville220171991
East Union220192019
Shiloh120062001
Sulphur Lick120052005
Pleasurevill119861979
Merrimac120211993
Hudson120181967
Eastview120111968
Dixie120132013
Joy120171994
Shelbyville119731968
Goshen119891967
Porter120211991
Plum120212021
Bays Fork120052005
Million 2120182008
Lebanon Junction120122012

Henslow's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

delawareillinoisindianaiowakansasmarylandmichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-dakotavermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.