BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Henslow's Sparrow Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGrassland birds

Henslow's Sparrow in Missouri has surged: up 370% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+370%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Henslow's Sparrow Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Henslow's Sparrow has surged in Missouri: up 370% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Henslow's Sparrow Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Henslow's Sparrow in Missouri is projected to rise about 95% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.29–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+95%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.52Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.29–0.7695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±100.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Henslow's Sparrow in Missouri is projected to rise about 95% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.29–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.490.260.73
20260.500.270.73
20270.510.280.74
20280.520.280.75
20290.520.290.76

Henslow's Sparrow Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Henslow's Sparrow in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lucerne620212019
Sticklervill420241984
Bland320172004
Frankford320242001
Watson220192015
New Hampton220242014
Filley220221978
Luray220232022
Danville220152000
Emden220182017
Ohio220231972
Madison220241993
Trenton220192000
Whitewater220242017
Moselle220222022
Millwood220132012
Mcfall220241995
Clementine 2220072007
Sedalia220231992
Pulaski120222010
Norborne120182015
Cameron120222008
Kahoka2120222006
Elmo120222016
Graydon120192002

Henslow's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

delawareillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymarylandmichiganminnesotanebraskanew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-dakotavermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.