BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Henslow's Sparrow Population Trend in Ohio

All statesGrassland birds

Henslow's Sparrow in Ohio has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-57%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Henslow's Sparrow Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Henslow's Sparrow has fallen sharply in Ohio: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Henslow's Sparrow Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Henslow's Sparrow in Ohio is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±131.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±131.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Henslow's Sparrow in Ohio is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±131.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.24
20260.000.000.24
20270.000.000.24
20280.000.000.24
20290.000.000.24

Henslow's Sparrow Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Henslow's Sparrow in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Meadowbrook320161970
Coal Run319901973
Bloomville220241996
Strongsville219731966
Marion219781978
Newcomerstwn219841980
Harveysburg219721970
Cuba220052002
Wilmington219671967
Ray219981992
Omega220231992
Hebron219961970
Cumberland219981974
Kunkle120242000
Pike S.F.119961995
Middlefield119801968
Stonecreek120222010
Lenox119811966
Birmingham120231988
Troy119831983
Cosmos120191977
No Kenton120232000
New Dover119721972
Lattasburg119741973
Westerville119831968

Henslow's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

delawareillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymarylandmichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomapennsylvaniasouth-dakotavermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.