BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Clay-colored Sparrow Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Clay-colored Sparrow in Minnesota has held roughly steady: up 2% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+2%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Clay-colored Sparrow Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Clay-colored Sparrow in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Clay-colored Sparrow Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Clay-colored Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 4.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 3.8–9.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.8–9.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±80.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clay-colored Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 4.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 3.8–9.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.43.69.1
20266.43.79.1
20276.43.79.1
20286.43.79.2
20296.53.89.2

Clay-colored Sparrow Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Clay-colored Sparrow in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oklee3620211969
Bagley3220061995
Lake Bronson2720111978
Badger2620181978
Greenbush2420241993
Big Stone2420121995
Grygla2120171976
Edwards1820241973
Debs1820241969
Knapp1720241967
Beltrami1620241967
Brook Park1620241998
New London1520241995
Appleton1420241979
Erie1320171976
Tracy1320242005
Glyndon1120241978
Warroad1120241993
Ashby1020211997
Chokio920241978
Little Fork920241969
Glenwood920191993
St Stephen820161967
Wylie820241970
Brainerd820241993

Clay-colored Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

coloradoillinoisindianaiowamainemichiganmontananebraskanew-yorknorth-dakotapennsylvaniasouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.