BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Clay-colored Sparrow Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGrassland birds

Clay-colored Sparrow in Minnesota has held roughly steady: up 1% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+1%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Clay-colored Sparrow Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Clay-colored Sparrow in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Clay-colored Sparrow Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Clay-colored Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to rise about 96% by 2030 — from 3.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 3.4–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+96%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–9.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±89.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clay-colored Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to rise about 96% by 2030 — from 3.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 3.4–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.23.49.0
20276.23.49.0
20286.23.49.0
20296.23.49.0
20306.23.49.1

Clay-colored Sparrow Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Clay-colored Sparrow in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oklee3620211969
Bagley3220061995
Greenbush3020251993
Lake Bronson2720111978
Badger2620181978
Big Stone2420121995
Grygla2120171976
Edwards1820241973
Debs1820251969
Appleton1720251979
New London1520241995
Erie1320171976
Tracy1220252005
Beltrami1120251967
Ashby1020211997
Little Fork920241969
Glenwood920191993
Redwood Fall820251984
Glyndon820251978
Wylie820241970
Brainerd820241993
Chokio720251978
Backus720251967
Chokio North720251993
Pine River620251967

Clay-colored Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

coloradoillinoisindianaiowamainemichiganmontananebraskanew-yorknorth-dakotapennsylvaniasouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.