BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Clay-colored Sparrow Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGeneralists

Clay-colored Sparrow in Michigan has edged up: up 11% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+11%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Clay-colored Sparrow Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Clay-colored Sparrow in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Clay-colored Sparrow Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Clay-colored Sparrow in Michigan is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.11–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±139.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.38Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.11–0.6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±139.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clay-colored Sparrow in Michigan is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.11–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±139.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.380.100.65
20260.380.100.65
20270.380.110.65
20280.380.110.66
20290.380.110.66

Clay-colored Sparrow Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Clay-colored Sparrow in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pickford1420241974
Herron620162011
Wilson520101966
Cathro420161996
Bergland220111985
Riggsville220171972
Ola219951995
Harrietta120091990
Ontonagon120191985
Marenisco120171989
Bootjack120231967
Ned Lake120221986
Herman120151991
Crystal Fls120231991
Gibbs City120011982
Maple Grove120231971
Ishpeming120231980
Brocky Lake120141980
Cunard120211973
Shingleton120221967
Creighton120031980
Isabella120121967
Bear Lake120241993
Sidnaw120141999
Lawrence120091975

Clay-colored Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

coloradoillinoisindianaiowamaineminnesotamontananebraskanew-yorknorth-dakotapennsylvaniasouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.