BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Clay-colored Sparrow Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGrassland birds

Clay-colored Sparrow in Michigan has surged: up 89% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+89%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Clay-colored Sparrow Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Clay-colored Sparrow has surged in Michigan: up 89% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Clay-colored Sparrow Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Clay-colored Sparrow in Michigan is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 0.50 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.12–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±137.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.40Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–0.6795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±137.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clay-colored Sparrow in Michigan is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 0.50 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.12–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±137.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.390.110.66
20270.390.120.66
20280.390.120.66
20290.390.120.67
20300.400.120.67

Clay-colored Sparrow Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Clay-colored Sparrow in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pickford1720251974
Herron620162011
Wilson520101966
Cathro420161996
Bergland220111985
Bear Lake220251993
Riggsville220171972
Ola220251995
Harrietta120091990
Ontonagon120191985
Marenisco120171989
Bootjack120231967
Ned Lake120221986
Herman120151991
Crystal Fls120231991
Gibbs City120011982
Maple Grove120231971
Ishpeming120251980
Brocky Lake120141980
Cunard120211973
Shingleton120221967
Creighton120031980
Isabella120121967
Sidnaw120141999
Lawrence120091975

Clay-colored Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

coloradoillinoisindianaiowamaineminnesotamontananebraskanew-yorknorth-dakotapennsylvaniasouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.