BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Clay-colored Sparrow Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Clay-colored Sparrow in South Dakota has risen sharply: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+66%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Clay-colored Sparrow Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Clay-colored Sparrow has risen sharply in South Dakota: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Clay-colored Sparrow Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Clay-colored Sparrow in South Dakota is projected to rise about 66% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.95–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+66%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.95–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clay-colored Sparrow in South Dakota is projected to rise about 66% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.95–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.833.0
20261.90.863.0
20272.00.893.1
20282.00.923.1
20292.00.953.1

Clay-colored Sparrow Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Clay-colored Sparrow in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Eagle Butte3420152011
Wilmot1720241967
Britton1320231971
Gettysburg920231994
Raymond620211968
Veblen620231967
Turton620242017
Harding520142014
Ardmore419931993
Lane 2320132008
Howard220171973
Chamberlain220051968
Volga220242012
Forbes220241967
Lennox120231968
Tripp120102007
White Lake120082008
Roswell120101967
Broadland120092009
Crow Creek120221967
Ft Thompson119691969
Conde119691967
Long Lake120181967
Laplant119901990
Volunteer120122011

Clay-colored Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

coloradoillinoisindianaiowamainemichiganminnesotamontananebraskanew-yorknorth-dakotapennsylvaniautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.