BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Clay-colored Sparrow Population Trend in Montana

All statesGrassland birds

Clay-colored Sparrow in Montana has surged: up 123% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+123%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Clay-colored Sparrow Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Clay-colored Sparrow has surged in Montana: up 123% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Clay-colored Sparrow Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Clay-colored Sparrow in Montana is projected to rise about 50% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.3–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clay-colored Sparrow in Montana is projected to rise about 50% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.3–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.31.23.5
20272.41.23.5
20282.41.23.6
20292.41.23.6
20302.51.33.6

Clay-colored Sparrow Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Clay-colored Sparrow in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Redstone3620251968
Circle2620181973
Westby2220252015
Heart Butte1420252015
Lindsay1120242015
St. Mary 21120252009
Glen819801980
Chinook820252015
Glentana820252015
Oswego720251978
Sunburst620071986
Cleveland620251979
Harlem520211980
Winifred 2420242024
Powderville420141970
Jordan320231982
Forsyth320191980
East Glacier Park320252015
Raynesford320242016
Lambert320252021
Kalispell220251968
Hay Lake220251989
Malta220241975
Glasgow220231979
Willow Creek 2220242021

Clay-colored Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

coloradoillinoisindianaiowamainemichiganminnesotanebraskanew-yorknorth-dakotapennsylvaniasouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.