BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Clay-colored Sparrow Population Trend in Montana

All statesGeneralists

Clay-colored Sparrow in Montana has surged: up 116% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+116%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Clay-colored Sparrow Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Clay-colored Sparrow has surged in Montana: up 116% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Clay-colored Sparrow Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Clay-colored Sparrow in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.5 (95% range 1.3–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clay-colored Sparrow in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.5 (95% range 1.3–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.41.23.5
20262.41.23.6
20272.41.23.6
20282.51.33.6
20292.51.33.7

Clay-colored Sparrow Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Clay-colored Sparrow in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Redstone5220241968
Westby3520242015
Circle2620181973
Cleveland1420241979
St. Mary 21220242009
Oswego1120241978
Heart Butte1120242015
Lindsay1120242015
Glentana1020242015
Glen819801980
Ester Lake720242015
Hay Lake620221989
Sunburst620071986
Polson620241989
Harlem520211980
Wolf Creek520192019
Roy420241988
Winifred 2420242024
Powderville420141970
Lambert420242021
Pablo Res.420242002
Kalispell320241968
Augusta320241976
Jordan320231982
Forsyth320191980

Clay-colored Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

coloradoillinoisindianaiowamainemichiganminnesotanebraskanew-yorknorth-dakotapennsylvaniasouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.