BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Clay-colored Sparrow Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGrassland birds

Clay-colored Sparrow in North Dakota has edged up: up 16% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+16%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Clay-colored Sparrow Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Clay-colored Sparrow in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Clay-colored Sparrow Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Clay-colored Sparrow in North Dakota is projected to rise about 54% by 2030 — from 17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 18–35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+54%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
18–3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clay-colored Sparrow in North Dakota is projected to rise about 54% by 2030 — from 17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 18–35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026251734
2027261734
2028261735
2029261835
2030271835

Clay-colored Sparrow Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Clay-colored Sparrow in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sheyenne Lk6220251980
Turtle Mtns5520251980
Emerado4120251973
Buchanan3420251967
Horsehead Lk3220251980
Stanley3120251967
Kempton3020171967
Cooperstown2720251969
Carpio2320231967
Loraine2220191982
Parshall2220131982
Wild Rose2120251982
Denbigh1920251968
Powers Lake1720251980
Danzig1620141982
Zap1620241967
Gorham1620251968
Edgeley1420251983
Regan1420251968
Montpelier1420251990
Danzig 21420252019
Dickinson1320251969
Lakota1120091968
Nash1020171980
Tobacco1020191968

Clay-colored Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

coloradoillinoisindianaiowamainemichiganminnesotamontananebraskanew-yorkpennsylvaniasouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.