BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Clay-colored Sparrow Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Clay-colored Sparrow in North Dakota has increased: up 34% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+34%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Clay-colored Sparrow Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Clay-colored Sparrow in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Clay-colored Sparrow Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Clay-colored Sparrow in North Dakota is projected to rise about 58% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 19–35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+58%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
19–3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clay-colored Sparrow in North Dakota is projected to rise about 58% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 19–35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025261734
2026261835
2027261835
2028271835
2029271935

Clay-colored Sparrow Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Clay-colored Sparrow in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turtle Mtns5820241980
Sheyenne Lk4520241980
Emerado4020241973
Cooperstown3420241969
Buchanan3420241967
Kempton3020171967
Wild Rose3020241982
Horsehead Lk2920241980
Gorham2720181968
Carpio2320231967
Danzig 22320242019
Loraine2220191982
Denbigh2220241968
Parshall2220131982
Regan2120221968
Dickinson1820241969
Powers Lake1720241980
Danzig1620141982
Zap1620241967
Montpelier1620241990
Edgeley1520241983
Stanley1320241967
Lakota1120091968
Nash1020171980
Tobacco1020191968

Clay-colored Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

coloradoillinoisindianaiowamainemichiganminnesotamontananebraskanew-yorkpennsylvaniasouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.