BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Shrike Population Analysis

LaniidaeGrassland birdsLanius borealis

Northern Shrike has risen sharply: up 67% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

+67%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Northern Shrike

The Northern Shrike (Lanius borealis) is a North American member of the Shrikes (Laniidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the grassland birds.

Size
8–10 in long (20–25 cm) — a songbird-sized predator (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open grasslands, prairie, pasture and hayfields.
Diet
Seeds and insects gathered from grasses and the ground.
Range
Recorded on 30 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 1 state, most concentrated in the BCR 4.
Family
Laniidae · Grassland birds

Notable Northern Shrike TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Shrike. See the full index history below.

Northern Shrike Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shrike is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.00). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shrike is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.00). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.000.00
20270.000.000.00
20280.000.000.00
20290.000.000.00
20300.000.000.00

Where the Northern Shrike Is Detected

BBS routes recording Northern Shrike, sized by most recent count.

Northern Shrike Population Trend by State

Northern Shrike population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska-33%198530

Northern Shrike Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Northern Shrike population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 2+94%199111
BCR 4-83%198613

Northern Shrike Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 67% since 1985. Grassland birds are North America's steepest-declining group, down roughly 50% since 1970 as prairie and pasture were lost.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.