BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Shrike Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGeneralists

Northern Shrike in Alaska has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-64%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Shrike Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Shrike has fallen sharply in Alaska: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Northern Shrike Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shrike in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shrike in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.09
20260.020.000.09
20270.020.000.09
20280.020.000.09
20290.020.000.09

Northern Shrike Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Northern Shrike in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dietrich Cmp320212021
Galbraith L.220222022
Kalifonsky219821982
Teller220172008
Kachemak219981998
Cold Bay220242019
Chiniak120221985
Tower Bluffs119971997
Maclaren120181992
Cantwell120031998
Toklat120121993
Seward119921992
Burma Road120092006
Council120082004
Haines119891989
Happy Valley120182018
Mud River120082000
Nome120231997
Salmon Lake120172007
Sheep Mtn119851985
Kotzebue120222008
King Salmon120241997
Chicken120112011
Kodiak 2119911991
Savage120121986

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.