BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Shrike Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGrassland birds

Northern Shrike in Alaska has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-33%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Shrike Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Shrike in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Northern Shrike Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shrike in Alaska is projected to fall about 76% by 2030 — from 0.15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-76%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±90.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shrike in Alaska is projected to fall about 76% by 2030 — from 0.15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.040.000.12
20270.040.000.12
20280.040.000.12
20290.040.000.12
20300.040.000.12

Northern Shrike Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Northern Shrike in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cold Bay520252019
Dietrich Cmp320212021
Galbraith L.220222022
Kalifonsky219821982
Teller220172008
Kachemak219981998
King Salmon220251997
Chiniak120221985
Tower Bluffs119971997
Maclaren120181992
Cantwell120031998
Toklat120121993
Seward119921992
Burma Road120092006
Council120082004
Haines119891989
Happy Valley120182018
Mud River120082000
Nome120231997
Salmon Lake120172007
Sheep Mtn119851985
Katmai N.P.120252025
Kotzebue120252008
Chicken120112011
Kodiak 2119911991

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.