BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Shrike In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Generalists

Northern Shrike in BCR 4 has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

-83%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Shrike has collapsed in BCR 4: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shrike in BCR 4 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2023, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±139.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2023TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2023 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±139.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shrike in BCR 4 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2023, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±139.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822023
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20190.000.000.07
20200.000.000.07
20210.000.000.07
20220.000.000.07
20230.000.000.07

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Northern Shrike in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KalifonskyALASKA21982
KachemakALASKA21998
Tower BluffsALASKA11997
MaclarenALASKA12018
CantwellALASKA12003
ToklatALASKA12012
ChickenALASKA12011
SavageALASKA12012
Hatcher PassALASKA12007
Swan Lake RdALASKA11984
Anchor RiverALASKA12014
Burma RoadALASKA12009
Mud RiverALASKA12008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.