BirdAnalyst
Guild · Indiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grassland Birds In Indiana

All statesIndiana

14 species in this guild. As a group they are -74%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grassland birds as a group have fallen sharply in Indiana, down 74% since 1968.

Grassland Birds In Indiana Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Indiana is projected to fall about 40% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Indiana is projected to fall about 40% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.20.094.3
20262.00.004.1
20271.90.004.0
20281.80.003.9
20291.70.003.8

Member Species In Indiana

Grassland birds species in Indiana.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Western MeadowlarkIcteridae-98%
Grasshopper SparrowPasserellidae-95%
BobolinkIcteridae-95%
Ring-necked PheasantPhasianidae-91%
Vesper SparrowPasserellidae-88%
Northern BobwhiteOdontophoridae-87%
Savannah SparrowPasserellidae-77%
Henslow's SparrowPasserellidae-73%
Eastern MeadowlarkIcteridae-71%
Sedge WrenTroglodytidae-71%
Upland SandpiperScolopacidae-65%
DickcisselCardinalidae-56%
Lark SparrowPasserellidae-38%
Horned LarkAlaudidae-35%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.