BirdAnalyst
Guild · Indiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Grassland Birds In Indiana

All statesIndiana

13 species in this guild. As a group they are -69%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grassland birds as a group have fallen sharply in Indiana, down 69% since 1968.

Grassland Birds In Indiana Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Indiana is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.71–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.71–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Indiana is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.71–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.61.04.1
20272.50.954.0
20282.40.874.0
20292.30.793.9
20302.30.713.8

Member Species In Indiana

Grassland birds species in Indiana.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Western MeadowlarkIcteridae-98%
BobolinkIcteridae-95%
Grasshopper SparrowPasserellidae-95%
Vesper SparrowPasserellidae-90%
Savannah SparrowPasserellidae-75%
Henslow's SparrowPasserellidae-73%
Eastern MeadowlarkIcteridae-70%
Sedge WrenTroglodytidae-68%
DickcisselCardinalidae-59%
Upland SandpiperScolopacidae-55%
Loggerhead ShrikeLaniidae-45%
Horned LarkAlaudidae-33%
Lark SparrowPasserellidae-22%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.