BirdAnalyst
Guild · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grassland Birds In Missouri

All statesMissouri

14 species in this guild. As a group they are -59%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grassland birds as a group have fallen sharply in Missouri, down 59% since 1969.

Grassland Birds In Missouri Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Missouri is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 5.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 1.1–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–6.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Missouri is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 5.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 1.1–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.71.97.5
20264.51.77.3
20274.31.57.1
20284.11.36.9
20293.91.16.7

Member Species In Missouri

Grassland birds species in Missouri.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Western MeadowlarkIcteridae-97%
Sedge WrenTroglodytidae-91%
Upland SandpiperScolopacidae-88%
Greater Prairie-ChickenPhasianidae-79%
Northern BobwhiteOdontophoridae-78%
Ring-necked PheasantPhasianidae-76%
Vesper SparrowPasserellidae-73%
Horned LarkAlaudidae-57%
Eastern MeadowlarkIcteridae-56%
Grasshopper SparrowPasserellidae-55%
DickcisselCardinalidae-28%
Lark SparrowPasserellidae-24%
BobolinkIcteridae+110%
Henslow's SparrowPasserellidae+370%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.