BirdAnalyst
Guild · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Grassland Birds In Missouri

All statesMissouri

12 species in this guild. As a group they are -52%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grassland birds as a group have fallen sharply in Missouri, down 52% since 1969.

Grassland Birds In Missouri Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Missouri is projected to fall about 38% by 2030 — from 5.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 0.90–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.90–6.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Missouri is projected to fall about 38% by 2030 — from 5.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 0.90–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.41.57.2
20274.21.47.0
20284.01.26.8
20293.91.16.7
20303.70.906.5

Member Species In Missouri

Grassland birds species in Missouri.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Western MeadowlarkIcteridae-98%
Loggerhead ShrikeLaniidae-92%
Upland SandpiperScolopacidae-91%
Sedge WrenTroglodytidae-91%
Vesper SparrowPasserellidae-73%
Horned LarkAlaudidae-61%
Eastern MeadowlarkIcteridae-56%
Grasshopper SparrowPasserellidae-52%
Lark SparrowPasserellidae-36%
DickcisselCardinalidae-36%
Henslow's SparrowPasserellidae+483%
BobolinkIcteridae+556%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.