BirdAnalyst
Guild · Maryland · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Grassland Birds In Maryland

All statesMaryland

8 species in this guild. As a group they are -73%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grassland birds as a group have fallen sharply in Maryland, down 73% since 1968.

Grassland Birds In Maryland Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Maryland is projected to fall about 66% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.45 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-66%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.45Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Maryland is projected to fall about 66% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.45 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.680.001.8
20270.620.001.7
20280.560.001.7
20290.500.001.6
20300.450.001.5

Member Species In Maryland

Grassland birds species in Maryland.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Vesper SparrowPasserellidae-97%
Eastern MeadowlarkIcteridae-85%
Henslow's SparrowPasserellidae-66%
Grasshopper SparrowPasserellidae-59%
Horned LarkAlaudidae-55%
Savannah SparrowPasserellidae+82%
DickcisselCardinalidae+251%
BobolinkIcteridae+359%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.