BirdAnalyst
Guild · Wisconsin · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grassland Birds In Wisconsin

All statesWisconsin

15 species in this guild. As a group they are -82%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grassland birds as a group have collapsed in Wisconsin, down 82% since 1968.

Grassland Birds In Wisconsin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Wisconsin is projected to fall about 66% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.55 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-66%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.55Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Wisconsin is projected to fall about 66% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.55 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.002.9
20260.950.002.7
20270.820.002.6
20280.680.002.5
20290.550.002.3

Member Species In Wisconsin

Grassland birds species in Wisconsin.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Western MeadowlarkIcteridae-100%
Upland SandpiperScolopacidae-96%
Northern BobwhiteOdontophoridae-96%
Grasshopper SparrowPasserellidae-96%
Vesper SparrowPasserellidae-93%
Henslow's SparrowPasserellidae-84%
Savannah SparrowPasserellidae-83%
BobolinkIcteridae-81%
Eastern MeadowlarkIcteridae-75%
Ring-necked PheasantPhasianidae-68%
DickcisselCardinalidae-65%
Sedge WrenTroglodytidae-41%
Greater Prairie-ChickenPhasianidae-40%
Horned LarkAlaudidae-8%
Lark SparrowPasserellidae+120%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.