BirdAnalyst
Guild · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Grassland Birds In Michigan

All statesMichigan

14 species in this guild. As a group they are -78%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grassland birds as a group have collapsed in Michigan, down 78% since 1968.

Grassland Birds In Michigan Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Michigan is projected to fall about 83% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-83%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Michigan is projected to fall about 83% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.540.001.3
20270.460.001.2
20280.370.001.2
20290.290.001.1
20300.210.000.99

Member Species In Michigan

Grassland birds species in Michigan.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Western MeadowlarkIcteridae-98%
Henslow's SparrowPasserellidae-95%
Vesper SparrowPasserellidae-92%
Grasshopper SparrowPasserellidae-92%
Eastern MeadowlarkIcteridae-85%
Loggerhead ShrikeLaniidae-82%
Savannah SparrowPasserellidae-81%
BobolinkIcteridae-80%
DickcisselCardinalidae-77%
Sedge WrenTroglodytidae-66%
Upland SandpiperScolopacidae-64%
LeConte's SparrowPasserellidae-62%
Horned LarkAlaudidae-39%
Clay-colored SparrowPasserellidae+89%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.