BirdAnalyst
Guild · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grassland Birds In Michigan

All statesMichigan

13 species in this guild. As a group they are -84%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grassland birds as a group have collapsed in Michigan, down 84% since 1968.

Grassland Birds In Michigan Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Michigan is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Michigan is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.380.001.5
20260.260.001.4
20270.150.001.3
20280.040.001.2
20290.000.001.2

Member Species In Michigan

Grassland birds species in Michigan.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Northern BobwhiteOdontophoridae-100%
Western MeadowlarkIcteridae-98%
Ring-necked PheasantPhasianidae-97%
Henslow's SparrowPasserellidae-95%
Grasshopper SparrowPasserellidae-93%
Vesper SparrowPasserellidae-92%
Eastern MeadowlarkIcteridae-86%
Savannah SparrowPasserellidae-85%
BobolinkIcteridae-82%
Sedge WrenTroglodytidae-74%
Upland SandpiperScolopacidae-64%
DickcisselCardinalidae-63%
Horned LarkAlaudidae-38%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.