BirdAnalyst
Guild · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Grassland Birds In Virginia

All statesVirginia

8 species in this guild. As a group they are -67%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grassland birds as a group have fallen sharply in Virginia, down 67% since 1968.

Grassland Birds In Virginia Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Virginia is projected to fall about 84% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-84%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Virginia is projected to fall about 84% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.550.002.5
20270.470.002.4
20280.380.002.3
20290.300.002.3
20300.210.002.2

Member Species In Virginia

Grassland birds species in Virginia.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Loggerhead ShrikeLaniidae-98%
Vesper SparrowPasserellidae-96%
Horned LarkAlaudidae-82%
Savannah SparrowPasserellidae-75%
Grasshopper SparrowPasserellidae-71%
Eastern MeadowlarkIcteridae-70%
DickcisselCardinalidae-30%
BobolinkIcteridae-10%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.