BirdAnalyst
Guild · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grassland Birds In New York

All statesNew York

11 species in this guild. As a group they are -57%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grassland birds as a group have fallen sharply in New York, down 57% since 1968.

Grassland Birds In New York Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in New York is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.26–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.26–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in New York is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.26–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.482.3
20261.30.422.2
20271.30.372.2
20281.20.312.1
20291.20.262.1

Member Species In New York

Grassland birds species in New York.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Northern BobwhiteOdontophoridae-99%
Ring-necked PheasantPhasianidae-99%
Upland SandpiperScolopacidae-96%
Grasshopper SparrowPasserellidae-93%
Eastern MeadowlarkIcteridae-90%
Vesper SparrowPasserellidae-87%
Henslow's SparrowPasserellidae-82%
Savannah SparrowPasserellidae-50%
BobolinkIcteridae-36%
Horned LarkAlaudidae-35%
Sedge WrenTroglodytidae-7%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.