BirdAnalyst
Guild · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grassland Birds In New Jersey

All statesNew Jersey

8 species in this guild. As a group they are -98%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grassland birds as a group have collapsed in New Jersey, down 98% since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in New Jersey is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1255%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1255%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in New Jersey is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1255%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.001.9
20260.000.001.9
20270.000.001.9
20280.000.001.9
20290.000.001.9

Member Species In New Jersey

Grassland birds species in New Jersey.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Northern BobwhiteOdontophoridae-99%
Ring-necked PheasantPhasianidae-98%
Eastern MeadowlarkIcteridae-97%
Vesper SparrowPasserellidae-67%
Horned LarkAlaudidae-63%
Grasshopper SparrowPasserellidae-62%
BobolinkIcteridae+29%
Savannah SparrowPasserellidae+44%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.