BirdAnalyst
Guild · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grassland Birds In Arkansas

All statesArkansas

6 species in this guild. As a group they are -62%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grassland birds as a group have fallen sharply in Arkansas, down 62% since 1969.

Grassland Birds In Arkansas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Arkansas is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 4.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.00–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Arkansas is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 4.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.00–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.10.007.3
20262.90.007.0
20272.60.006.8
20282.40.006.6
20292.20.006.3

Member Species In Arkansas

Grassland birds species in Arkansas.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Northern BobwhiteOdontophoridae-93%
Eastern MeadowlarkIcteridae-82%
Lark SparrowPasserellidae-63%
Grasshopper SparrowPasserellidae-42%
Horned LarkAlaudidae-24%
DickcisselCardinalidae+30%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.