BirdAnalyst
Guild · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grassland Birds In Arizona

All statesArizona

6 species in this guild. As a group they are -69% since 1970.

Guild Signals

guild collapsecomputed index

Grassland birds as a group have fallen sharply in Arizona, down 69% since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Arizona is projected to fall about 67% by 2029 — from 3.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-67%Change by 2029
1.0Projected 2029 index
0.00–4.395% range
±37.6%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.50.004.8
20261.40.004.7
20271.30.004.5
20281.10.004.4
20291.00.004.3

Member Species In Arizona

Grassland birds species in Arizona.
Horned LarkAlaudidae-73%
Lark SparrowPasserellidae-69%
Cassin's SparrowPasserellidae-64%
Vesper SparrowPasserellidae-43%
Grasshopper SparrowPasserellidae-40%
Western MeadowlarkIcteridae-2%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.