BirdAnalyst
Guild · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grassland Birds In Arizona

All statesArizona

6 species in this guild. As a group they are -69%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grassland birds as a group have fallen sharply in Arizona, down 69% since 1970.

Grassland Birds In Arizona Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Arizona is projected to fall about 67% by 2029 — from 3.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-67%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Arizona is projected to fall about 67% by 2029 — from 3.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.004.8
20261.40.004.7
20271.30.004.5
20281.10.004.4
20291.00.004.3

Member Species In Arizona

Grassland birds species in Arizona.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Horned LarkAlaudidae-73%
Lark SparrowPasserellidae-69%
Cassin's SparrowPasserellidae-64%
Vesper SparrowPasserellidae-43%
Grasshopper SparrowPasserellidae-40%
Western MeadowlarkIcteridae-2%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.