BirdAnalyst
Guild · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grassland Birds In Kansas

All statesKansas

16 species in this guild. As a group they are -29%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for grassland birds in Kansas. See the full index history below.

Grassland Birds In Kansas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Kansas is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 12–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Kansas is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 12–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025191325
2026191325
2027191225
2028181224
2029181224

Member Species In Kansas

Grassland birds species in Kansas.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Lark BuntingPasserellidae-97%
Cassin's SparrowPasserellidae-78%
BobolinkIcteridae-71%
Western MeadowlarkIcteridae-66%
Ring-necked PheasantPhasianidae-40%
Henslow's SparrowPasserellidae-39%
Grasshopper SparrowPasserellidae-39%
Northern BobwhiteOdontophoridae-25%
Eastern MeadowlarkIcteridae-25%
Vesper SparrowPasserellidae-20%
Upland SandpiperScolopacidae-6%
Horned LarkAlaudidae+8%
Sedge WrenTroglodytidae+16%
DickcisselCardinalidae+31%
Lark SparrowPasserellidae+75%
Greater Prairie-ChickenPhasianidae+114%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.