BirdAnalyst
Guild · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Grassland Birds In Kansas

All statesKansas

14 species in this guild. As a group they are -31%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for grassland birds in Kansas. See the full index history below.

Grassland Birds In Kansas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 17 (95% range 11–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 17 (95% range 11–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026181224
2027171223
2028171123
2029171123
2030171123

Member Species In Kansas

Grassland birds species in Kansas.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Lark BuntingPasserellidae-97%
Cassin's SparrowPasserellidae-88%
Loggerhead ShrikeLaniidae-87%
BobolinkIcteridae-71%
Western MeadowlarkIcteridae-66%
Vesper SparrowPasserellidae-59%
Grasshopper SparrowPasserellidae-46%
Henslow's SparrowPasserellidae-39%
Eastern MeadowlarkIcteridae-24%
Upland SandpiperScolopacidae-15%
Horned LarkAlaudidae-9%
Sedge WrenTroglodytidae+16%
DickcisselCardinalidae+36%
Lark SparrowPasserellidae+75%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.