BirdAnalyst
Guild · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grassland Birds In Kansas

All statesKansas

16 species in this guild. As a group they are -29%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for grassland birds in Kansas. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Kansas is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 12–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Kansas is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 12–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025191325
2026191325
2027191225
2028181224
2029181224

Member Species In Kansas

Grassland birds species in Kansas.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Lark BuntingPasserellidae-97%
Cassin's SparrowPasserellidae-78%
BobolinkIcteridae-71%
Western MeadowlarkIcteridae-66%
Ring-necked PheasantPhasianidae-40%
Henslow's SparrowPasserellidae-39%
Grasshopper SparrowPasserellidae-39%
Northern BobwhiteOdontophoridae-25%
Eastern MeadowlarkIcteridae-25%
Vesper SparrowPasserellidae-20%
Upland SandpiperScolopacidae-6%
Horned LarkAlaudidae+8%
Sedge WrenTroglodytidae+16%
DickcisselCardinalidae+31%
Lark SparrowPasserellidae+75%
Greater Prairie-ChickenPhasianidae+114%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.