BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Yellow Wagtail

MotacillidaeGrassland birdsMotacilla tschutschensis

Eastern Yellow Wagtail has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

-71%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Eastern Yellow Wagtail

The Eastern Yellow Wagtail (Motacilla tschutschensis) is a North American member of the Wagtails & Pipits (Motacillidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the grassland birds.

Size
6–8 in long (15–20 cm) — a slim, walking songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open grasslands, prairie, pasture and hayfields.
Diet
Seeds and insects gathered from grasses and the ground.
Range
Recorded on 15 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 1 state, most concentrated in the BCR 2.
Family
Motacillidae · Grassland birds

Notable Eastern Yellow Wagtail TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Yellow Wagtail. See the full index history below.

Eastern Yellow Wagtail Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Yellow Wagtail is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Yellow Wagtail is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.04
20260.010.000.03
20270.010.000.03
20280.000.000.03
20290.000.000.03

Where the Eastern Yellow Wagtail Is Detected

BBS routes recording Eastern Yellow Wagtail, sized by most recent count.

Eastern Yellow Wagtail Population Trend by State

Eastern Yellow Wagtail population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska-73%199415

Eastern Yellow Wagtail Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Eastern Yellow Wagtail population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 2-86%199412
BCR 3-59%19953

Eastern Yellow Wagtail Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 71% since 1994. Grassland birds are North America's steepest-declining group, down roughly 50% since 1970 as prairie and pasture were lost.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.