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Species · BCR 3 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Yellow Wagtail In BCR 3

All regionsBCR 3Generalists

Eastern Yellow Wagtail in BCR 3 has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

-59%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Yellow Wagtail has fallen sharply in BCR 3: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

Eastern Yellow Wagtail In BCR 3 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Yellow Wagtail in BCR 3 is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 4.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Yellow Wagtail in BCR 3 is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 4.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19932029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.60.0012
20263.30.0012
20273.10.0011
20282.80.0011
20292.50.0011

Routes In BCR 3

Routes recording Eastern Yellow Wagtail in BCR 3.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Happy ValleyALASKA182024
Galbraith L.ALASKA22014
Red DogALASKA11998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.