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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Yellow Wagtail Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGeneralists

Eastern Yellow Wagtail in Alaska has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

-73%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Yellow Wagtail Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Yellow Wagtail has fallen sharply in Alaska: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

Eastern Yellow Wagtail Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Yellow Wagtail in Alaska is projected to fall about 75% by 2029 — from 0.43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-75%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Yellow Wagtail in Alaska is projected to fall about 75% by 2029 — from 0.43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.260.001.2
20260.220.001.1
20270.180.001.1
20280.150.001.1
20290.110.001.0

Eastern Yellow Wagtail Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Eastern Yellow Wagtail in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Goodnews Bay2720051999
Kanektok Riv2420051995
Happy Valley1820241993
Togiak River1220051994
Kotzebue1120242001
Kotzebue (Short)919941986
Salmon Lake620121993
Cape Nome520121993
Teller220181993
Selawik (Short)219861986
Galbraith L.220141993
Nome120101993
St. Mary'S120021993
Council120231993
Red Dog119981996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.