BirdAnalyst
Guild · Louisiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Grassland Birds In Louisiana

All statesLouisiana

5 species in this guild. As a group they are -82%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grassland birds as a group have collapsed in Louisiana, down 82% since 1969.

Grassland Birds In Louisiana Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Louisiana is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Louisiana is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.730.004.3
20270.550.004.2
20280.370.004.0
20290.190.003.8
20300.010.003.6

Member Species In Louisiana

Grassland birds species in Louisiana.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
DickcisselCardinalidae-86%
Loggerhead ShrikeLaniidae-80%
Eastern MeadowlarkIcteridae-77%
Lark SparrowPasserellidae-74%
Horned LarkAlaudidae-49%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.