BirdAnalyst
Guild · Idaho · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Grassland Birds In Idaho

All statesIdaho

9 species in this guild. As a group they are -41%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grassland birds as a group have declined in Idaho, down 41% since 1970.

Grassland Birds In Idaho Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Idaho is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.9 (95% range 2.4–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Idaho is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.9 (95% range 2.4–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.22.814
20278.12.714
20288.02.613
20298.02.513
20307.92.413

Member Species In Idaho

Grassland birds species in Idaho.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Lark BuntingPasserellidae-96%
Western MeadowlarkIcteridae-46%
Grasshopper SparrowPasserellidae-38%
Savannah SparrowPasserellidae-27%
Horned LarkAlaudidae-6%
BobolinkIcteridae+10%
Lark SparrowPasserellidae+25%
Loggerhead ShrikeLaniidae+195%
Vesper SparrowPasserellidae+332%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.