BirdAnalyst
Guild · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Grassland Birds In North Dakota

All statesNorth Dakota

18 species in this guild. As a group they are -46%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grassland birds as a group have declined in North Dakota, down 46% since 1969.

Grassland Birds In North Dakota Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in North Dakota is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 7.1–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.1–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in North Dakota is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 7.1–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026147.920
2027147.719
2028137.519
2029137.319
2030137.119

Member Species In North Dakota

Grassland birds species in North Dakota.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Lark BuntingPasserellidae-98%
Baird's SparrowPasserellidae-96%
Sprague's PipitMotacillidae-85%
Chestnut-collared LongspurCalcariidae-83%
Thick-billed LongspurCalcariidae-82%
LeConte's SparrowPasserellidae-79%
DickcisselCardinalidae-64%
Loggerhead ShrikeLaniidae-62%
Horned LarkAlaudidae-34%
Western MeadowlarkIcteridae-32%
Grasshopper SparrowPasserellidae-27%
Savannah SparrowPasserellidae-24%
Clay-colored SparrowPasserellidae+16%
BobolinkIcteridae+19%
Vesper SparrowPasserellidae+32%
Upland SandpiperScolopacidae+171%
Lark SparrowPasserellidae+363%
Sedge WrenTroglodytidae+624%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.