Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Thick-billed Longspur Population Trend in North Dakota

Thick-billed Longspur in North Dakota has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-82%Since 1971
3Routes In State
21Years

Notable Thick-billed Longspur Trends in North Dakota

long arc declinecomputed index

Thick-billed Longspur has collapsed in North Dakota: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Thick-billed Longspur Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Thick-billed Longspur in North Dakota is projected to fall about 100% by 2002 — from 0.07 in 1997 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2002
0.00Projected 2002 index
0.000.1395% range
±86.1%Backtest error
19672002
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
19980.000.000.13
19990.000.000.13
20000.000.000.13
20010.000.000.13
20020.000.000.13

Thick-billed Longspur Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Thick-billed Longspur in North Dakota.
Gorham419861986
Bowman319971967
Golva119941994

Thick-billed Longspur Population Trend in Other States

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.