BirdAnalyst
Species · Wyoming · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Thick-billed Longspur Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesGeneralists

Thick-billed Longspur in Wyoming has surged: up 192% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+192%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Thick-billed Longspur Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Thick-billed Longspur has surged in Wyoming: up 192% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Thick-billed Longspur Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Thick-billed Longspur in Wyoming is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.18–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.18–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Thick-billed Longspur in Wyoming is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.18–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.133.0
20261.60.143.0
20271.60.163.0
20281.60.173.0
20291.60.183.0

Thick-billed Longspur Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Thick-billed Longspur in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shirley6520241992
Rock River6020221990
Harmony5320231982
Cheyenne3020241980
Pine Tree2619951980
Buford2120241978
Piney1919901982
Savageton1620192019
Sweetwater1220091981
Lusk1120231991
Newcastle1019881988
Glenrock919771968
Shawnee720151999
Otto619741974
Rozet519911991
Yoder519711969
Clark320242019
Harland Flat319951990
Natrona219861973
Seely 2220102010
Patrick Draw 5220042004
Upton219891988
Patrick Draw 4220022002
Rock Springs219781978
Chugwater220242024

Thick-billed Longspur Population Trend in Other States

coloradomontananebraskanorth-dakota

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.