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Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sprague's Pipit Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGrassland birds

Sprague's Pipit in North Dakota has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-85%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sprague's Pipit Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sprague's Pipit has collapsed in North Dakota: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Sprague's Pipit Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Sprague's Pipit in North Dakota is projected to fall about 86% by 2030 — from 0.33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-86%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sprague's Pipit in North Dakota is projected to fall about 86% by 2030 — from 0.33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.150.001.1
20270.120.001.1
20280.100.001.1
20290.070.001.0
20300.050.001.0

Sprague's Pipit Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Sprague's Pipit in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Denbigh820251968
Wild Rose420131985
Ft Yates320031988
Roosevelt Pk320041982
Carson220231997
Buchanan219831982
Dunn Center220221969
Carpio220031967
Tobacco220131968
Douglas Crk220061987
Edgeley120132013
Lake George120071979
Danzig120011992
Kempton119931980
Horsehead Lk120101981
Webster119901990
Regan119871969
Dickinson120251969
Loraine119921984
Stanley120161967
Bowman120232023
Zap120181968
Gorham120171998
Cedar Creek120061986
Golva120081996

Sprague's Pipit Population Trend in Other States

minnesotamontanasouth-dakotawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.