BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sprague's Pipit Population Trend in Montana

All statesGrassland birds

Sprague's Pipit in Montana has surged: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+107%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sprague's Pipit Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sprague's Pipit has surged in Montana: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Sprague's Pipit Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Sprague's Pipit in Montana is projected to rise about 259% by 2030 — from 0.23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.82 (95% range 0.09–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+259%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.82Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±111%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sprague's Pipit in Montana is projected to rise about 259% by 2030 — from 0.23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.82 (95% range 0.09–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.790.061.5
20270.800.071.5
20280.810.071.5
20290.810.081.5
20300.820.091.6

Sprague's Pipit Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Sprague's Pipit in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Whitlash620242009
Wolf Creek520222015
Oswego420251978
Two Dot420251977
Malta320221990
Chinook320212015
Roundup320242017
Wheat Basin320192017
St Mary220081968
Shawmut220251984
Reed Point219961980
Shelby220172016
Ester Lake220252015
Saco220252015
Westby220242015
Raynesford220192016
Dinosaurs H.M.220222018
Lindsay220172017
Muddy Creek220152015
Hay Lake120192015
Sunburst120061988
Virgelle120151997
Cleveland120171980
Harlem120141980
Glasgow120241968

Sprague's Pipit Population Trend in Other States

minnesotanorth-dakotasouth-dakotawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.