BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sprague's Pipit Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesGrassland birds

Sprague's Pipit in South Dakota has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-58%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sprague's Pipit Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sprague's Pipit has fallen sharply in South Dakota: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Sprague's Pipit Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Sprague's Pipit in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2023, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2023TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2023 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±89.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sprague's Pipit in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2023, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672023
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20190.060.000.30
20200.060.000.29
20210.060.000.29
20220.060.000.29
20230.060.000.29

Sprague's Pipit Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Sprague's Pipit in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Eagle Butte620152010
Harding620111999
Fort Pierre219731973
Reva219971997
Isabel220152015
Laplant219751971
Lodgepole120161990
Marcus119991999
Ft Thompson119671967
Long Lake120182008

Sprague's Pipit Population Trend in Other States

minnesotamontananorth-dakotawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.