BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sprague's Pipit

MotacillidaeGrassland birdsAnthus spragueii

Sprague's Pipit has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-30%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Sprague's Pipit

The Sprague's Pipit (Anthus spragueii) is a North American member of the Wagtails & Pipits (Motacillidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the grassland birds.

Size
6–8 in long (15–20 cm) — a slim, walking songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open grasslands, prairie, pasture and hayfields.
Diet
Seeds and insects gathered from grasses and the ground.
Range
Recorded on 88 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 5 states, most concentrated in the Prairie Potholes.
Family
Motacillidae · Grassland birds

Notable Sprague's Pipit TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sprague's Pipit. See the full index history below.

Sprague's Pipit Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sprague's Pipit is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sprague's Pipit is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.05
20260.020.000.05
20270.020.000.05
20280.020.000.05
20290.020.000.05

Where the Sprague's Pipit Is Detected

BBS routes recording Sprague's Pipit, sized by most recent count.

Sprague's Pipit Population Trend by State

Sprague's Pipit population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Minnesotainsufficient datan/a1
Montana+141%197044
North Dakota-86%196932
South Dakota-58%197210
Wyominginsufficient datan/a1

Sprague's Pipit Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Sprague's Pipit population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Rockies-91%19708
Prairie Potholes-41%196940
Badlands and Prairies+117%196940

Sprague's Pipit Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 30% since 1969. Grassland birds are North America's steepest-declining group, down roughly 50% since 1970 as prairie and pasture were lost.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.