BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sprague's Pipit In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGrassland birds

Sprague's Pipit in Prairie Potholes has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-45%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sprague's Pipit in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Sprague's Pipit In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sprague's Pipit in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 68% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.45 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+68%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.45Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sprague's Pipit in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 68% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.45 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.470.001.1
20270.470.001.0
20280.460.001.0
20290.460.001.0
20300.450.001.0

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Sprague's Pipit in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA82025
WhitlashMONTANA62024
OswegoMONTANA42025
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA42013
MaltaMONTANA32022
ChinookMONTANA32021
ShelbyMONTANA22017
Ester LakeMONTANA22025
SacoMONTANA22025
WestbyMONTANA22024
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA21983
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA22003
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA22006
OkleeMINNESOTA11983
Hay LakeMONTANA12019
SunburstMONTANA12006
VirgelleMONTANA12015
ClevelandMONTANA12017
HarlemMONTANA12014
GlasgowMONTANA12024
RedstoneMONTANA12025
Great FallsMONTANA12018
GildfordMONTANA12025
GlentanaMONTANA12025
Wolf PointMONTANA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.