BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sprague's Pipit In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGrassland birds

Sprague's Pipit in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 91% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+91%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sprague's Pipit has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 91% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Sprague's Pipit In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sprague's Pipit in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 230% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+230%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.33Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±76.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sprague's Pipit in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 230% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.320.000.69
20270.330.000.69
20280.330.000.69
20290.330.000.69
20300.330.000.69

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Sprague's Pipit in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HardingSOUTH-DAKOTA62011
Eagle ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA62015
Two DotMONTANA42025
RoundupMONTANA32024
Wheat BasinMONTANA32019
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA32003
Roosevelt PkNORTH-DAKOTA32004
ShawmutMONTANA22025
Reed PointMONTANA21996
Dinosaurs H.M.MONTANA22022
LindsayMONTANA22017
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA22022
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA22013
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA22023
LaplantSOUTH-DAKOTA21975
Fort PierreSOUTH-DAKOTA21973
RevaSOUTH-DAKOTA21997
IsabelSOUTH-DAKOTA22015
LeroyMONTANA12008
RoyMONTANA12017
JordanMONTANA11982
CircleMONTANA12018
SavageMONTANA12019
ForsythMONTANA12006
LocateMONTANA12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.