BirdAnalyst
Guild · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Grassland Birds In Nevada

All statesNevada

7 species in this guild. As a group they are -20%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for grassland birds in Nevada. See the full index history below.

Grassland Birds In Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Nevada is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 11 (95% range 2.0–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Nevada is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 11 (95% range 2.0–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026112.221
2027112.121
2028112.120
2029112.020
2030112.020

Member Species In Nevada

Grassland birds species in Nevada.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Grasshopper SparrowPasserellidae-88%
Loggerhead ShrikeLaniidae-28%
Horned LarkAlaudidae-27%
Western MeadowlarkIcteridae-5%
Savannah SparrowPasserellidae+75%
Vesper SparrowPasserellidae+190%
Lark SparrowPasserellidae13×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.