BirdAnalyst
Guild · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grassland Birds In Nevada

All statesNevada

7 species in this guild. As a group they are -30%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for grassland birds in Nevada. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Nevada is projected to fall about 37% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.00–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Nevada is projected to fall about 37% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.00–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025110.0022
2026110.0022
2027110.0022
2028110.0022
2029110.0022

Member Species In Nevada

Grassland birds species in Nevada.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Grasshopper SparrowPasserellidae-88%
Horned LarkAlaudidae-30%
Western MeadowlarkIcteridae-2%
Savannah SparrowPasserellidae+35%
Vesper SparrowPasserellidae+202%
Ring-necked PheasantPhasianidae+281%
Lark SparrowPasserellidae+819%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.