BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Snow Bunting

CalcariidaeGrassland birdsPlectrophenax nivalis

Snow Bunting has surged: up 639% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

+639%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Snow Bunting

The Snow Bunting (Plectrophenax nivalis) is a North American member of the Longspurs & Snow Buntings (Calcariidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the grassland birds.

Size
5.5–7 in long (14–18 cm) — a small ground songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open grasslands, prairie, pasture and hayfields.
Diet
Seeds and insects gathered from grasses and the ground.
Range
Recorded on 5 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 1 state.
Family
Calcariidae · Grassland birds

Notable Snow Bunting TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Snow Bunting. See the full index history below.

Snow Bunting Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Snow Bunting is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±225.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±225.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Snow Bunting is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±225.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19842028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.020.000.04
20250.020.000.04
20260.020.000.04
20270.020.000.04
20280.020.000.04

Where the Snow Bunting Is Detected

BBS routes recording Snow Bunting, sized by most recent count.

Snow Bunting Population Trend by State

Snow Bunting population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska+252%19865

Snow Bunting Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 639% since 1986. Grassland birds are North America's steepest-declining group, down roughly 50% since 1970 as prairie and pasture were lost.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.