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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Snow Bunting Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGeneralists

Snow Bunting in Alaska has surged: up 252% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

+252%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Snow Bunting Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Snow Bunting has surged in Alaska: up 252% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Snow Bunting Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Snow Bunting in Alaska is projected to fall about 26% by 2028 — from 0.89 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.06–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±778.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.66Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±778.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Snow Bunting in Alaska is projected to fall about 26% by 2028 — from 0.89 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.06–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±778.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19842028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.610.011.2
20250.620.021.2
20260.630.041.2
20270.650.051.2
20280.660.061.3

Snow Bunting Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Snow Bunting in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Utqiagvik5920232021
Galbraith L.419931993
Adak420011984
Teller220172017
Council120182000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.