BirdAnalyst
Guild · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grassland Birds In Ohio

All statesOhio

13 species in this guild. As a group they are -76%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grassland birds as a group have collapsed in Ohio, down 76% since 1968.

Grassland Birds In Ohio Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Ohio is projected to fall about 62% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.77 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-62%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.77Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Ohio is projected to fall about 62% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.77 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.002.9
20261.10.002.8
20270.980.002.7
20280.880.002.6
20290.770.002.5

Member Species In Ohio

Grassland birds species in Ohio.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Northern BobwhiteOdontophoridae-99%
Ring-necked PheasantPhasianidae-99%
Upland SandpiperScolopacidae-97%
Grasshopper SparrowPasserellidae-94%
Western MeadowlarkIcteridae-91%
Vesper SparrowPasserellidae-89%
BobolinkIcteridae-89%
Eastern MeadowlarkIcteridae-84%
Henslow's SparrowPasserellidae-57%
Savannah SparrowPasserellidae-53%
Sedge WrenTroglodytidae-18%
Horned LarkAlaudidae-14%
DickcisselCardinalidae+75%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.