BirdAnalyst
Guild · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grassland Birds In Oklahoma

All statesOklahoma

12 species in this guild. As a group they are +1%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for grassland birds in Oklahoma. See the full index history below.

Grassland Birds In Oklahoma Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 9.3–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.3–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 9.3–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025159.621
2026159.521
2027159.421
2028159.320
2029159.320

Member Species In Oklahoma

Grassland birds species in Oklahoma.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Henslow's SparrowPasserellidae-65%
Northern BobwhiteOdontophoridae-64%
Eastern MeadowlarkIcteridae-36%
Lark SparrowPasserellidae-9%
Western MeadowlarkIcteridae+19%
DickcisselCardinalidae+43%
Lark BuntingPasserellidae+53%
Upland SandpiperScolopacidae+157%
Ring-necked PheasantPhasianidae+206%
Grasshopper SparrowPasserellidae+333%
Horned LarkAlaudidae12×
Cassin's SparrowPasserellidae16×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.