BirdAnalyst
Guild · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Grassland Birds In New Mexico

All statesNew Mexico

11 species in this guild. As a group they are -44%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grassland birds as a group have declined in New Mexico, down 44% since 1970.

Grassland Birds In New Mexico Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in New Mexico is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 8.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in New Mexico is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 8.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.70.0014
20276.50.0014
20286.30.0013
20296.00.0013
20305.80.0013

Member Species In New Mexico

Grassland birds species in New Mexico.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Loggerhead ShrikeLaniidae-80%
Savannah SparrowPasserellidae-73%
Horned LarkAlaudidae-59%
Western MeadowlarkIcteridae-41%
Lark BuntingPasserellidae-39%
Cassin's SparrowPasserellidae+6%
Chihuahuan MeadowlarkIcteridae+17%
DickcisselCardinalidae+33%
Lark SparrowPasserellidae+183%
Grasshopper SparrowPasserellidae+299%
Vesper SparrowPasserellidae+372%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.