BirdAnalyst
Guild · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grassland Birds In Kentucky

All statesKentucky

9 species in this guild. As a group they are -77%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grassland birds as a group have collapsed in Kentucky, down 77% since 1968.

Grassland Birds In Kentucky Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Kentucky is projected to fall about 85% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.00–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-85%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.47Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Kentucky is projected to fall about 85% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.00–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.006.8
20261.30.006.6
20271.00.006.3
20280.740.006.0
20290.470.005.8

Member Species In Kentucky

Grassland birds species in Kentucky.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Grasshopper SparrowPasserellidae-97%
Northern BobwhiteOdontophoridae-83%
Horned LarkAlaudidae-81%
Lark SparrowPasserellidae-79%
Eastern MeadowlarkIcteridae-78%
DickcisselCardinalidae-66%
Savannah SparrowPasserellidae-43%
Henslow's SparrowPasserellidae+141%
BobolinkIcteridae+411%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.