BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Clay-colored Sparrow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Clay-colored Sparrow in Prairie Potholes has risen sharply: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+53%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Clay-colored Sparrow has risen sharply in Prairie Potholes: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Clay-colored Sparrow In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Clay-colored Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 67% by 2029 — from 9.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 11–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+67%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clay-colored Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 67% by 2029 — from 9.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 11–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025151119
2026151119
2027151120
2028151120
2029161120

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Clay-colored Sparrow in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA582024
RedstoneMONTANA522024
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA452024
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA402024
OkleeMINNESOTA362021
WestbyMONTANA352024
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA342024
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA342024
KemptonNORTH-DAKOTA302017
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA302024
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA292024
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA272011
BadgerMINNESOTA262018
Big StoneMINNESOTA242012
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA232023
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA232024
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA222019
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA222024
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA222013
GryglaMINNESOTA212017
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA212022
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA172024
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA172024
BeltramiMINNESOTA162024
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA162014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.