BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Clay-colored Sparrow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGrassland birds

Clay-colored Sparrow in Prairie Potholes has increased: up 37% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+37%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Clay-colored Sparrow in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Clay-colored Sparrow In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Clay-colored Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 80% by 2030 — from 8.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 11–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+80%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clay-colored Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 80% by 2030 — from 8.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 11–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026151019
2027151019
2028151019
2029151120
2030151120

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Clay-colored Sparrow in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA622025
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA552025
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA412025
OkleeMINNESOTA362021
RedstoneMONTANA362025
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA342025
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA322025
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA312025
KemptonNORTH-DAKOTA302017
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA272011
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA272025
BadgerMINNESOTA262018
Big StoneMINNESOTA242012
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA242025
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA232023
WestbyMONTANA222025
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA222019
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA222013
GryglaMINNESOTA212017
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA212025
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA192025
AppletonMINNESOTA172025
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA172025
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA162014
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA142025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.