BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Clay-colored Sparrow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Clay-colored Sparrow in Prairie Potholes has risen sharply: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+53%Since 1969
104Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Clay-colored Sparrow has risen sharply in Prairie Potholes: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Clay-colored Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 67% by 2029 — from 9.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 11–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+67%Change by 2029
16Projected 2029 index
11–2095% range
±45%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025151119
2026151119
2027151120
2028151120
2029161120

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Clay-colored Sparrow in Prairie Potholes.
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA582024
RedstoneMONTANA522024
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA452024
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA402024
OkleeMINNESOTA362021
WestbyMONTANA352024
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA342024
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA342024
KemptonNORTH-DAKOTA302017
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA302024
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA292024
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA272011
BadgerMINNESOTA262018
Big StoneMINNESOTA242012
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA232023
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA232024
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA222019
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA222024
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA222013
GryglaMINNESOTA212017
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA212022
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA172024
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA172024
BeltramiMINNESOTA162024
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA162014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.